A Goldilocks Job Report – Knowledge Leaders Capital
As the market continues to rally on Monday, we can’t help but ask ourselves what data nugget might we have missed from last Friday’s data? Let’s start with the more…
As the market continues to rally on Monday, we can’t help but ask ourselves what data nugget might we have missed from last Friday’s data? Let’s start with the more…
In a recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Publication titled “Monetary Policy Stance is Tighter Than Fed Funds Rate,” the authors argue that the “all in” policy rate is actually higher…
While many seemed to focus on the basics of the employment report like average hourly earnings (which don’t take into consideration industry mix shifts among the employed) and the payroll…
There are many ways to decompose the bond market to identify the component pieces to infer what the market is pricing in. The nominal long US Treasury bond is a…
The Federal Reserve has been raising rates at an extremely aggressive manner in 2022, taking the federal funds rate from 25bps to 4%. At the same time, they have been…
Investors in innovation tend to focus on the US exclusively, and some of that is for good reason as the US spends more than any other country on research and…
In recent reports, we’ve been highlighting that innovation—as a factor represented by R&D as % of sales—has stopped underperforming and it is selling for an attractive valuation. We used the…
While many perceive the S&P 500 Index to be a broad innovation-heavy index, in a way it is and in a way it isn’t. It is an innovation-heavy index in…
A couple weeks ago, in our quarterly strategy report (see: QSR-Has Innovation Bottomed?), I argued that it appeared that innovation had bottomed. I showed the following chart, which is maintaining…
Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia stopped short of another 50bps hike to its overnight cash rate. The RBA’s statement contained one nugget that helps explain its decision: “One…
Innovation was the market darling thematic for many years leading up to COVID. The pandemic turbo-charged returns for innovation as the stay-at-home beneficiaries did phenomenally well. However, since the first…
Using our proprietary point-and-figure-based charting system, I review a couple thousand charts per week in an attempt to identify interesting buy or sale candidates. I am never satisfied with sector…
Last week, the combined dollar value of hedge positions on the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Dow Jones Industrial indexes was $121.43 billion, not far from the August 16 peak…
The most significant element going into the June low was positioning. Investors were hyper-aggressive buying hedges for equity exposure. Nothing has changed, especially after last Friday’s drop, and investors are…
This the name of a recent research piece from the San Francisco Federal Reserve written by Adam Shapiro. The paper attempts to separate supply and demand factors to evaluate which…
Over the weekend, we got a slew of data showing a generally weak economy. Below are the actual data compared with the expectations from Bloomberg. Of course, the headline grabber…
Tomorrow we get the consumer price index year-over-year for January, with expectations for 7.25%. This would take the CPI to a new high for the cycle, rising from 7% year-over-year…
Of course, the backdrop right now is Russia—a large petroleum-producing country—threatening to invade Ukraine. This is clearly roiling the oil markets and leading to ever higher prices. Have those prices…
After President Biden’s speech, the consensus seemed to coalesce around the idea that the sanctions put forth were not as strong as they possibly could have been. Chiefly, due to…
2022 has been a tough year so far for risk management. This appears to us related to the inflation problem the US is experiencing. As long as inflation persists, the…