Will They or Won’t They?
The Federal Reserve has all but cemented expectations for a 25bps rate hike next week. But, events have changed a lot in the last couple weeks that raise a faint…
Is Powell’s Confidence Shared by the Rest of the FOMC?
While many commentators scratched their heads at the Fed’s latest summary of economic projections (SEP), the market took its cue from Chairman Powell’s suggestion the US economy can withstand a…
Sales & Earnings Probably Need to Do the Heavy Lifting for Stocks to Continue Higher
In a year when the US is experiencing massive fiscal austerity, monetary tightening, war, inflation and a pandemic, there are many drags to stock performance. In our view, this puts…
Is Now the Time for Small Cap Growth to Shine?
Across US indexes, growth has experienced a resurgence relative to value off the June 17, 2022 low. In this piece, I am going to focus on small-cap stocks and consider…
China’s Potential to Alleviate Global Inflation
For a confluence of reasons ranging from COVID to property sector problems, China has been experiencing slower growth. Many cross-asset relationships suggest that a devaluation in China could help spur…
Navigating a Minefield – Knowledge Leaders Capital
In this quarter’s strategy report, Navigating a Minefield, we discuss the following: -The Fed is tightening into a growth slowdown. Unlike in 2015, the Fed has just lifted off while…
The Chinese Yuan is Now in Play… And This Could Mitigate Any Global Slowdown
The clear and present danger to the global economy is inflation because global central banks are starting to take aggressive actions to deal with what they now believe to be…
Thoughts on Fed Meeting and Rest of Year
Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that…
The Chinese Devaluation Continues – Knowledge Leaders Capital
Just today, as US inflation came in a touch hotter than expected, the Chinese Yuan is pulling lower, testing the lows of May 9, 2022. The five-day rate of change…
Crash Watch – Knowledge Leaders Capital
The template of 1929 and 1987 is coming into focus in recent trading days. Let’s start with the 1929 crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began the week of October…
Inflation, Growth, China and Financial Markets
All year inflation has been the narrative driving markets. Since December 2021, once the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) took off, rates have risen in tandem. But, interestingly enough the BCOM…
An Inflection Point in the Labor Market?
As everyone knows, the labor market has been quite strong, with expectations for the unemployment rate to fall further next week. Much has been made of the relationship between job…
Tour of the Global Equity Markets
Please find below our Mid-Quarter Update: Tour of the Global Equity Markets. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. SummaryWe have a very precise methodology for dissecting…
Is the Japanese Yen’s Decline Over?
Since the COVID low in US Treasury rates and subsequent rise, the Japanese Yen has tracked the yield differential between the US and Japan. With the Federal Reserve having embarked…
Divergences in the Energy Patch
Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years. But now we are seeing some divergences between oil prices and other related variables. First,…
Cracking and Pivoting
The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country. This is not the solution. With the exception of…
Room to Run – Knowledge Leaders Capital
After the June 17, 2022 low, stocks have jumped higher, taking out the 50-day moving average yesterday in the S&P 500. Many are debating whether this is a bear market…
Smart Money Investing Signals – Knowledge Leaders Capital
The Smart Money Index was constructed by Don Hays and measures the market action in the first half hour of trading and the last hour of trading. The indicator shorts…