Tail Risks Emerging
S&P 500 continued higher Friday as consumer confidence data didn‘t disappoint – adding to soft landing hopes. Soft landing would though only happen should the unemployment claims don‘t rise too…
Blame It on Ukraine!
World leaders boldly came up with a plan to not take any responsibility for the economic hardships the world is going to face. When in doubt, just blame it on…
Supply Versus the FED
Oil prices might be fighting the Fed but a warning from FERC about natural gas shortages in the Northeast and the fact that diesel and heating oil inventories are at…
Laughing It Off
Global oil markets are laughing off Biden’s announcement to release another 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the previously announced release through the month of…
False Dawn Or Not
S&P 500 jubilation continued yesterday, and markets didn‘t really notice Fed‘s Williams throwing cold water on giving up the fight against inflation prematurely. The excessive moves in USD retreat well…
Fed Turn That Wasn't
S&P 500 didn‘t look back at Monday‘s lows, bonds were pushing higher while the dollar retreated to my 111.50 support before stabilizing. Also junk bonds had trouble extending gains in…
SPX Bottom Near?
S&P 500 reversed to the downside on high volume, and the open short position became profitable from the get-go. No matter the premarket jubilation driven by retreat in bond yields,…
Making Its Move
Oil prices are soaring after Friday’s dismal performance after it became apparent that OPEC plus Russia it’s getting ready to make its move. It really shouldn’t be a surprise to…
All Eyes on Long-Dated Treasuries
S&P 500 yet again kept declining through the day, and Treasuries offered a bleak sight till shortly before the close when long-dated ones turned finally higher – and both tech…
Before the Drop
S&P 500 duly reversed as I called for it intraday to do. Not that the message from bonds or the dollar would be more optimistic really – for the bulls…
In a Heartbeat
S&P 500 cratered, bonds confirmed, and market breadth took a dive. The advance-decline line is not really in a good shape, and the respite that‘s possibly shaping up for today…
Daily Check
S&P 500 bears missed yesterday‘s opportunity to force a decisive close lower – several key sectors led the intraday recovery even though bonds weren‘t on board. The Fed minutes‘ initial…
The Turn
S&P 500 more than erased Thursday‘s decline – buy the dip mentality won, and the advance was that broad-based that it makes sense that I examine the theoretical possibility of…
Bull Trap Ready
S&P 500 bearish overtures were refused, bonds remained optically risk-on and strong, but the true picture reflects a daily stall. Refusal to drive prices higher in the absence of convincing,…
Consolidation Now
S&P 500 did a brief intraday downswing yesterday – very fast erased. Bonds strong, market breadth further improving, FOMO almost kicking in – and then AAPL and AMZN earnings interpretation…
Bullish Case Explained
S&P 500 slowly rising into the FOMC served to confirm the upcoming bullish interpretation of Fed moves. On one hand, the 75bp rate hike is over, on the other hand…
Right on Cue
S&P 500 declined, but the short-term bullish case is far from lost. There is a stark contrast to yesterday‘s tech earnings as opposed to Walmart or Snapchat lately – shifting…
The Message
The White House continues to tell us that they are doing nothing wrong with the way they are running the economy or the country, it’s only the messaging that gets…
Who Do You Trust?
If you can’t trust Russian President Vladimir Putin then who can you trust? European natural gas prices fell after Mr. Putin assured Europe that he would provide all the gas…
Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze
S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a…