US monetary tightening and the Fed’s cluelessness « TSI Blog
January 11, 2023 [This blog post is a modified excerpt from a commentary published at TSI in April of 2022. The main changes are updates to the chart and the…
The coming plunge in short-term interest rates « TSI Blog
December 22, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary] Market interest rates always lead Fed-controlled interest rates at important turning points. Therefore, when trying to…
US Recession Watch « TSI Blog
December 7, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at TSI on 4th December] At least one of two things should happen to warn that an…
Investment Seesaw Update « TSI Blog
November 16, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a TSI commentary published last week] Many times over the years we’ve argued that gold and the world’s most important…
Monetary tightening into deflation « TSI Blog
October 12, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary published at TSI] It would be difficult for our opinion of Powell and Co. to be any…
The Inflation Shock « TSI Blog
September 20, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a TSI commentary published last week] The financial markets were shocked — shocked, we tell ya! — by the US…
Monetary inflation around the world « TSI Blog
September 6, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary] In most countries/regions around the world, monetary inflation rates peaked at extraordinary heights in early 2021…
Money supply confirms the bust « TSI Blog
August 31, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at TSI last week] We have referred to the 6% level for the year-over-year US True Money…
US monetary inflation and the boom-bust cycle « TSI Blog
March 28, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary] The phenomenal rise in the US monetary inflation rate from early-2020 to early-2021 fuelled a speculative…
A secular trend has changed « TSI Blog
April 10, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent TSI commentary] For 36 years the yield on the 10-year T-Note moved lower within the channel drawn on…
The status of gold’s “true fundamentals” « TSI Blog
April 18, 2022 My Gold True Fundamentals Model (GTFM) takes into account the seven most important fundamental drivers of the US$ gold price (the real interest rate, the yield curve,…
US monetary inflation and boom-bust update « TSI Blog
May 2, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a TSI commentary published last week] The phenomenal rise in the US monetary inflation rate from early-2020 to early-2021 set…
Gold and the ‘Real’ Interest Rate « TSI Blog
May 24, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at TSI last week] One of the few commonly-believed things about gold that is actually true is…
The Investment Seesaw « TSI Blog
June 11, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a TSI commentary published on 5th June 2022] A point we’ve made many times in the past* is that gold…
The Fed has been ‘quantitatively tightening’ for more than 6 months « TSI Blog
June 15, 2022 [This blog post is a excerpt from a recent TSI commentary] In terms of effect on the money supply, reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos) are the opposite…
Energy Transition Realities « TSI Blog
June 24, 2022 [This blog post is an excerpt from a recent commentary published at TSI] This is a follow-up to our 25th April piece titled “Inconvenient Facts” in which…