S&P, Dow, Nasdaq fall, yields rise as Fed policy meeting, earnings in focus

U.S. stocks fell on Monday at the start of a busy week for corporate earnings, with investors also looking forward to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting decision for any indications as to whether the central bank would begin to slow its pace of rate hikes as early as December.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) was down 1.12% to 10,978.19 points in morning trade. The benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) had lost 0.51% to 3,881.05 points, while the blue-chip Dow (DJI) was 0.25% lower at 32,781.12 points.

All three major indices had rallied more than 2% on Friday and posted hefty gains for the week, as hopes of moderation in the Fed’s rate hikes and some economic data that showed higher rates were having their intended effect on cooling the economy helped offset disappointing quarterly reports from megacap technology firms.

Ten of the 11 S&P sectors were trading in the red, with Communication Services the top loser. Energy was the only sector in the green.

Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos in an article on Sunday said strong consumer balance sheets could mean higher interest rates for longer. Timiraos, who is considered to be very close to the FOMC’s thinking, earlier this month sparked the Fed pivot hopes rally when he reported that policymakers would discuss smaller hikes.

Goldman Sachs believes that this week’s trading action will depend on what Fed chief Jerome Powell will say and whether he is ok with much looser financial conditions.

“With regards to the Fed, a fourth successive 75bps has long been pretty much nailed on but the subsequent path of hikes is now up for grabs and will be the key focus from this week’s meeting,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said.

“It feels inconceivable to us, given how spectacularly forward guidance has broken down across the global markets over the last 12 months, that Powell will try to guide too aggressively forDecember, especially with two payrolls (one this week) and two CPIs to come before they meet again,” Reid added.

Rates were higher on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) was up 3 basis points to 4.04% and the 2-year yield (US2Y) was up 7 basis points to 4.49%. The dollar index (DXY) was 0.80% higher.

Turning to economic news, October Chicago PMI data showed an unexpected fall, coming in at 45.2 versus consensus of 47. The October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -19.4, compared to a prior reading of -17.2.

Among active stocks, Wynn Resorts was the top S&P 500 gainer after the casino operator disclosed a sizeable stake by Landry’s owner Tilman Fertitta. Emerson Electric was marginally higher after reporting results and the sale of a 55% stake in its climate-technologies unit to Blackstone.

In global events, Lula da Silva made a return to the presidency in Brazil.